Earthquake in the southern Philippines

,,,

not near us, but in the southern island.

The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Mindanao on Monday left a trail of destruction in General Santos City, damaging several buildings. Phivolcs said the city experienced Intensity VIII shaking. (Courtesy: Ryan Jay Quizon)

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— Inquirer (@inquirerdotnet) June 8, 2026

earthquakes anyone?

 We haven't had any major earthquakes in our area since we moved here, but we did lose out internet from an earthquake near Taiwan awhile back.

The main danger is the Manila trench and the Philippine trench, although a fault line does come right thru our area and our last big earthquake was in 1990,  

 

So I asked Grok what would happen if there was a major earthquake 

 The Manila Trench, west of Luzon, Philippines, is a major subduction zone where the Sunda Plate subducts beneath the Philippine Mobile Belt. Earthquakes along this trench can generate tsunamis, potentially causing significant damage to Luzon’s coastal areas, including Metro Manila.

 

Below is an overview of the potential tsunami damage to Luzon from a Manila Trench earthquake, based on studies and historical context: ### Potential Tsunami Impact 1. **Tsunami Height and Reach**: - Studies suggest that a large earthquake (magnitude 8.5–9.2) along the Manila Trench could produce tsunamis with waves up to **10 meters** high, impacting over **800 kilometers** of Luzon’s western coastline, including Metro Manila....A 2003 study (Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study) modeled a magnitude 7.9 earthquake, estimating tsunami waves of **2–4 meters** in Manila Bay, with a propagation time of about **70 minutes** from the trench to the coast. Higher magnitudes (e.g., 8.9–9.0) could generate waves up to **9–14.7 meters**, similar to devastating tsunamis in Japan (2011) or Indonesia (2004).[] ...

In December 2024, PHIVOLCS warned that a magnitude 8.4 earthquake in the trench near Ilocos Sur could produce waves up to **14.7 meters**, reaching northern Luzon’s coast in as little as **2 minutes**.

**Metro Manila**: Low-lying coastal cities like Valenzuela, Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Pasay, Las Piñas, and Parañaque are highly vulnerable to flooding from tsunami waves. The Pasig River could channel waves inland, potentially flooding areas like Malacañang Palace and the Pandacan fuel depot....

 

**Western Luzon**: Provinces such as Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan face significant risk due to their proximity to the trench. 

**Other Regions**: Tsunamis could also affect countries around the South China Sea, including Taiwan, southern China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, though Luzon would bear the brunt.,,,

 

*Historical Context**: - Tsunamis in the Philippines are rare but devastating. The 1994 Mindoro tsunami (magnitude 7.1) caused 38 deaths with waves up to **8.5 meters**. The 1976 Moro Gulf tsunami (magnitude 8.1) killed around **8,000 people** with **9-meter waves**, though it was caused by the Cotabato Trench.[],,,    -

 

No major tsunamis from the Manila Trench have been recorded in recent history, but geological evidence suggests past basin-wide tsunami events, possibly from a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake with a rupture up to **1,000 km** long.[](https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/19/1565/2019/) ###

Vulnerability Factors - **Population Density**: Metro Manila’s high population and urban density increase the risk of casualties and economic loss. -

 

**Low-Lying Areas**: Many coastal areas have elevations below 4 meters, making them prone to flooding.[](https://opinion.inquirer.net/86390/tsunami-alert) -

 

**Infrastructure**: Poorly built structures and soft sediment in areas like Pampanga amplify damage from ground shaking and tsunamis.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Luzon_earthquake) -

 

**Proximity to Trench**: The Manila Trench is only ~100–200 km from Luzon’s coast, leaving little time for evacuation.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_Trench)[](https://opinion.inquirer.net/86390/tsunami-alert) ### Recent Events - On **January 20, 2025**, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck offshore between Mindoro and Luzon, felt in Metro Manila, but caused **no significant damage** or tsunami. This event highlights the region’s seismic activity but was too small to generate a tsunami.[]....

 

Conclusion A major Manila Trench earthquake could trigger a catastrophic tsunami, with waves up to 10–14.7 meters flooding Luzon’s western coast, particularly Metro Manila and northern provinces. Damage could range from hundreds of destroyed buildings and casualties in a moderate scenario to widespread devastation in a worst-case magnitude 9.0+ event. While no such tsunami has occurred recently, the region’s tectonic setting and historical evidence underscore the need for preparedness. For more details on tsunami risks, visit [PHIVOLCS](https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph)  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_Trench)

a lot of the damage in the recent Burma earthquake was from shoddy workmanship  and substandard rebars and concrete.

We are required to reinforce all our construction with rebars, so if the concrete shatters, the metal rods will keep the blocks in place. But with corruption, there is no guarantee that all the buildings will have proper construction and of course in a major earthquake, or with a major tsunami, buildings could collapse or be flooded.

one of the scandals in the recent Burmese earthquake was a new building that collapsed due to shoddy materials, and they are blaming the Chinese company that did the construction.

this is not the only time this happened: in China there was a big scandal after a 2008 earthquake. And poor Chinese construction is so common that they even have their own Wikipedia page: Tofu Dreg project.

I can believe it. Ten years ago, the mayor covered our drainage ditches with concrete plates, and they are all deteriorating/crumbling, and in two areas heavy trucks have collapsed into the drainage ditches because the coverings gave way, and had to be towed out.

So anyway, China is still destroying the sea beds in the West Philippine sea and presumably is using their wonderful tofu concrete to do so. So what would happen if the Manila plate off the west coast had an earthquake?

I asked Grok and they said the islands would probably survive the shaking but not the secondary tsunami.

Full answer below:

would an earthquake here destroy China's artificial islands in the west Philippine sea? Grok answers:

An earthquake along the Manila Trench could potentially impact China's artificial islands in the South China Sea, but whether it would "destroy" them depends on several factors, including the earthquake's magnitude, depth, location, and the structural integrity of the islands.

in other words, good construction might survive, but maybe not tofu buildings. 

... Manila Trench and Earthquake Potential The Manila Trench is an active subduction zone west of the Philippines, where the Sunda Plate subducts beneath the Philippine Mobile Belt. It is capable of generating significant earthquakes, with studies suggesting potential magnitudes ranging from Mw 8.5 to Mw 9.2, and in extreme scenarios, up to Mw 9.35. Such events could trigger tsunamis, which pose a greater threat to low-lying artificial islands than the earthquake's ground shaking alone, given the distance between the trench and the islands.

China's Artificial Islands China has constructed artificial islands in the South China Sea, primarily in the Spratly and Paracel Islands, by dredging and reclaiming land on coral reefs. These islands, such as Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef, host military infrastructure, including airstrips, radar stations, and missile emplacements.

They are built on shallow reefs, making them vulnerable to sea-level changes, erosion, and extreme oceanic events like tsunamis.

 

The islands cover approximately 3,200 acres across seven Spratly features, created between 2013 and 2017. 

Potential Impact of an Earthquake Ground Shaking: The artificial islands are located hundreds of kilometers from the Manila Trench (e.g., Mischief Reef is roughly 200 nautical miles west of Manila). At this distance, the ground shaking from even a large earthquake (e.g., Mw 9.0) would likely be attenuated, causing minimal direct structural damage to the islands. However, the loose, unconsolidated sediment used in reclamation could amplify local shaking or lead to liquefaction, potentially destabilizing structures.

Liquification is where tremors cause clay beneath the buildings to liquify, and was a major problem in the Japanese 1995 Kobe earthquake. 

Tsunami Risk: The greater threat comes from a potential tsunami triggered by a megathrust earthquake. Studies indicate that a Mw 9.0+ earthquake along the Manila Trench could generate tsunami waves up to 10 meters high, impacting coastlines and islands in the South China Sea, including the Spratlys. Specific impacts include: Wave Heights: Simulations suggest waves could reach 9.3 meters for a Mw 9.35 event, with heights of up to 14.7 meters in extreme scenarios near northern Luzon. The Spratly Islands, being low-lying (often just above sea level), are highly vulnerable to inundation.

Inundation: A tsunami could flood the artificial islands, damaging infrastructure like runways, barracks, and radar installations... 

 

Historical Precedent: Geological evidence from ~1000 years ago (circa 1000–1064 CE) indicates a basin-wide tsunami in the South China Sea, likely caused by a Manila Trench megathrust event, with deposits found on islands like the Xisha (Paracel) and Badoc. This suggests that the Spratly Islands could also be affected.

 

Structural Vulnerabilities: The artificial islands are built on reclaimed coral reefs, which lack the geological stability of natural landmasses. The unconsolidated sediment and shallow foundations make them susceptible to erosion, subsidence, and wave damage.

 Environmentalists have noted that dredging has already damaged coral ecosystems, potentially weakening the islands' natural barriers against waves. A tsunami could exacerbate this, washing away loose material and undermining structures.... 

 

 

Fiesta time in Luzon

Right now, it is "summer" in the Philippines.
It's hot. There is no rain, and nothing grows without irrigation, so work slows down in farm areas.

The rains start in May. So by late May, it is time to start mulching the rice fields to prepare them for the rice seedlings, that are planted by hand.

Thanks to handplows (sort of a large rototiller) the tilling is a bit easier than the old days of using a waterbuffalo, but no matter how it is done, rice takes a lot of work to get a good crop.

But right now, there is little rain, the fields are fallow, so it is fiesta time.

There are all sorts of fiestas in the Philippines, most of them celebrating the local saints.

Each town has a large church, but every neighborhood has a small open air chapel used for prayer meetings and weekly mass.

Our town's church patron is the Three Kings, so there is a fiesta in early January. And our neighborhood is San Lorenzo, St. Lawrence. The next neighborhood is San Vincente, St. Vincent Ferrar. You get the idea. Then there are fiestas and processions for Christmas, Easter, Holy Week, etc.

Humans have a need for celebration. In secular societies, we celebrate everything from our local sports team to Independence day. Here, we celebrate the saints.

The fiestas are a way to teach the young about God, through stories that teach them about Catholicism, both dogma and morality.

The big fiesta in our town is "the Divina Pastora", which roughly translates as "the Holy Shepherdess". A local website tells the story of how a dream led to a visit to an Augustine friar, who gave the lady an image of the Spanish Divina Pastora: Mary as a Spanish shepherdess, with staff and widebrimmed hat, caring for her sheep.

The statue at first was only placed in the family shrine, but soon it's fame and association for miracles spread, until soon it became the center of the small town's local devotion.

All of this at first seems strange, since there are no sheep in this area (goats yes, but no sheep). But of course, the image tells us that Mary, the mother of God, is a loving mother caring for her wandering children, and that story transcends cultural boundaries.

Mama Mary may be dressed for the fiesta in gold brocade and given a crown, but everyone knows she is wearing the hat of a farm wife and is busy working watching the sheep. She is one of the common people, not a rich lady.

Mama Mary is one of us.

Perhaps at this point I should point out that when the friars came, they taught religion via fiestas, stories, and images. Jesus became Kuya Jesus (older brother Jesus), Mary was Mama Mary, and God the father was, well, the father in charge of his large extended family.

Devotion is quite personal. Most people have small shrines in their homes, with various images which are decorated with flowers and leis on holy days. Lourdes shrines are commonly found in middle class homes. And many Catholic families pray the rosary every day after supper.

With the modern world changing things, we see a change in culture.

Often, the more "americanized" Filipino, especially the business community, becomes Protestant. They join a church full of other intelligent, upright, hard working businessmen, and hear sermons which teach a strict set of moral rules. Teaching is via bible verses, not by stories, and is very exact and proper.

And that influence has led Catholic groups to stress bible study, so that educated Catholics now learn where their beliefs were written in the Bible.

Yet the Protestants have brought another way to worship that has energized the Catholic church:the Pentecostal/Charismatic movements where singing and praise allows people to feel a personal relationship with Jesus Christ and empowerment of the Holy Spirit as part of their lives.

But the Catholics, even those involved in the charismatics, still love the fiestas to express their religion.

Here there are two parades. The "official" one is May 1, but the religious one was on Saturday.

First there was an afternoon Mass, with the crowning of Mary.

This was followed by a parade of groups from the small parish churches in each neighborhood (barangay) in a parade.

The statues of the saints came first, followed by the parish groups. Many groups were dressed in local costumes, others in traditional garb. Many of the poorer groups only had sashes or ponchos to identify their group. But they marched as a way to show their devotion to Mary, and as a way to honor God.

Photos from the parish website HERE show the 2002 fiesta.

And then came the street dances and parties. The parties continue through May 1st. Lots of people use the fiesta as an excuse to travel home and visit extended family.

Of course, these celebrations are frowned on as quaint and pagan by the more sophisticated, but Hey, we're Filipinos.

We figure if Jesus could do his first miracle to keep the wedding party going in Cana, he won't mind if we eat some lechon and drink a Cola or San Mig to celebrate him and his mom.

Family news

Yesterday we went to Manila to pick up Lolo's hearing aid. They had to send it to Singapore to get fixed, and it's been back for two weeks, but this is the first chance we had to drive down.

Now I don't have to shout at him.

It was Chano's birthday, so we celebrated by eating at a fancy Steakhouse...I ordered the Caeser salad (something I can't get here) and Lolo the steak and we shared, but still took home half the steak for us to eat for supper. Lolo rarely eats steak: it's quite expensive, usually imported from Australia or New Zealand. The local beef is either water buffalo or old cow, and has to be soaked, boiled, or pounded to eat.

Luckily the major demonstrations are being held today in Manila, since the hearing aid company's office is around the corner from the Peninsula Hotel where the last coup attempt took place. (the door is now fixed). But few feel that any protest will do anything...partly because the "smoking gun" will never be found, and partly because she'll be out in two years anyway, so why bother...they're all crooks anyway.

Note: This is not my opinion, just what people tell me.

Chano notes GMA is good for business, and supports her.

The price of life

My husband Lolo was looking at a photo of himself and his highschool chums...
"that one is dead...that one is dead"...only one of the six are alive, and he had a stroke and lives with his son in NYCity.

So yesterday, we heard a cousin "fell" and couldn't get up, and was taken to the next city to the hospital there. When I asked if he had a stroke, they said no, and they didn't think he had broken anything, but the usual scenerio in this type of fall is a hip fracture.

He is also in his eighties, and Lolo visits him every two months or so and gives him money...he has a daughter who is a teacher working overseas, but she apparantly doesn't send any money back for him, so he lives off a small pension and his other children here. He has arthritis but is usually cheerful.

We checked all the public hospitals, but couldn't find him...we finally found him at the good private hospital. Sure enough, he has a fractured hip, and needs surgery...but no money, no insurance.

Surgery would cost 2000 dollars.
When we went to visit, Lolo took 200 dollars with him to give, but now he faces the question: should he dig into his dwindling savings to pay for the surgery, or just let it go.

A third alternative is to go to a public hospital, but the nursing care there is poor, and there is a wait to get surgery...or maybe they just won't do it.

Seeing the cousin's poor health, he could die in surgery. But the non surgical treatment for hip fracture is bedrest, and most elderly die within six months due to pneumonia.

This shows the dilemma of the poor people here. Rice is cheap, so there is malnutrition but not starvation. But you don't heal well because you lack protein...and if you get sick, you might not be able to afford the medicine.